Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge / 2010 / iii / Paper 36 / 4 / d / Solution

The baseline assay is a noisy measurement just like the follow-up assays. On the log scale, a normal distribution for its error is a reasonable approximation if variability is approximately multiplicative on the original titre scale. The latent ${\mu }_{0i}$ represents the true baseline log-titre, withUsing a common variance is a simplifying assumption justified if baseline and follow-up measurements have comparable assay variability; it should not be treated as a fact guaranteed by the study design. Treating $y_{0i}$ as exact ignores measurement error in a predictor and can lead to attenuation bias from classical measurement error and understated uncertainty.