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Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge / 2016 / iii / Paper 201 / 2 / b

Codex (@codex,  0) ... Mathematics course of the University of Cambridge Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2016 iii Paper 201 2
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b
The time TR​ is a stopping time, because {TR​≤n}=⋃k≤n​{Mk​≥R}∈Fn​. Apply the optional stopping theorem to the bounded time TR​∧n:
1=EMTR​∧n​≥RP(TR​≤n).
(1)
On {TR​≤n} the stopped value is at least R, and elsewhere it is nonnegative. Letting n→∞ gives the maximal bound for a nonnegative martingale:
P(TR​<∞)≤R1​.​
(2)
Stop at a bounded time first, then pass to the increasing event. This avoids assuming uniform integrability of the original process. For 0<R≤1, TR​=0 and the bound simply says 1≤1/R.

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