Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge / 2018 / ii / Paper 1 / 28J (Applied Probability)

An Inhomogeneous Poisson process with intensity $\lambda$ is a counting process with $N_0=0$, independent increments, andThe continuity and positivity of $\lambda$ make $\Lambda$ strictly increasing.

For $M_t=N_{g(t)}$ and $0\le s<t$,has a Poisson distribution with meanDisjoint increments remain independent, so $M$ is a homogeneous rate-one Poisson process. Taking $g={\Lambda }^{-1}$ gives $N_t=M_{\Lambda (t)}$, and henceThis is the time change of an inhomogeneous Poisson process.

For the bicycle model, let an arrival occur at time $s\le t$ and have velocity $V$. At time $t$ its position is $V(t-s)$, so it lies in the first $x$ miles exactly whenConditional on its arrival time, independently marking the bicycle by whether this event occurs is Poisson thinning. Therefore the desired count is Poisson with meanThus