Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge / 2018 / iii / Paper 201 / 4 / c

Put $D_t=B_t-B_t^{\prime }$. By independence of the two Brownian motions, $D_t/\sqrt{2}$ is a standard Brownian motion: its independent increments have the normal distribution with variance equal to elapsed time. The stopping time $\tau$ is the first time $D$ hits $-1$ or $3$.

To justify finiteness without presupposing the desired hitting probability, each unit-time increment of $D$ has the normal distribution $N(0,2)$. An increment of absolute value greater than $4$ forces exit from $[-1,3]$ if the path was inside at its start. These independent increments give $\mathbb{P}(\tau >n)\le (1-p{)}^n$, where $p=\mathbb{P}(|N(0,2)|>4)>0$. Hence $\tau <\infty$ almost surely.

The stopped martingale $D_{t\wedge \tau }$ lies in $[-1,3]$. The optional stopping theorem at $t\wedge \tau$ gives $\mathbb{E}{D}_{t\wedge \tau }=0$, and the bounded convergence theorem gives $\mathbb{E}{D}_{\tau }=0$. Writing $q=\mathbb{P}(D_{\tau }=-1)$, path continuity gives $0=-q+3(1-q)$. Therefore, as in Brownian exit from an interval,