Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge / 2019 / iii / Paper 350 / 2

The conditional mean estimator is the posterior meanprovided the first moment is finite. A maximum a posteriori estimate is any maximizer of the posterior density relative to Lebesgue measure:Existence of the posterior density alone does not guarantee a finite posterior mean or existence of a maximizing point.

For the stated multivariate normal distribution and independent standard Gaussian noise, the negative log of the posterior density, up to a constant, isIts precision matrix $A^{T}A+{\Sigma }^{-1}$ is a positive-definite matrix, so Gaussian conjugacy for a normal linear model givesThe two forms agree becauseThe covariance matrix is $(A^{T}A+{\Sigma }^{-1}{)}^{-1}$, and the maximum a posteriori estimate equals the posterior mean for this multivariate normal distribution.

A simple choice is an independent Laplace distribution at each pixel, giving a Laplace prior for sparse images:Its negative log density penalizes the L1 norm. Relative to a normal distribution, it combines a sharp peak at zero with heavier tails, allowing most pixels to lie near the background level while a few have appreciable intensity. Quantitatively, $\mathbb{P}(|u_j|>\tau )=e^{-\lambda \tau }$, so the expected number of appreciable pixels is $d{e}^{-\lambda \tau }$. Choosing $\lambda \tau$ large makes this small. This is a simple sparsity model: it does not enforce that nearby active pixels form connected objects, nor does its continuous density give exact zero pixels positive probability. Additional spatial modelling would be needed to insist on contiguous shapes.

To sample, draw independent $U_j\sim \mathcal{U}(0,1)$ and use inverse transform sampling:The endpoint events have probability zero and can be assigned arbitrary finite values. To justify the rule, the cumulative distribution function of a centered Laplace distribution isThe displayed rule is $F^{-1}(U_j)$, so $\mathbb{P}(u_j\le x)=\mathbb{P}(U_j\le F(x))=F(x)$. Independence of random variables then gives the stated product prior distribution.

Use the shape-rate convention for the Gamma distribution. DefineThe zero null space assumption makes $B$ a positive-definite matrix, and $u_{\ast }$ is the unique ordinary least squares solution. The Gaussian likelihood contributes ${\gamma }^{k/2}$, which must be retained because $\gamma$ is unknown. Multiplying it by the improper prior and the Gamma distribution gives the normal-gamma posterior with a flat prior:Here the constant density of the improper prior cancels on normalization. PutThe normal equation $A^{T}r=0$ makes the residual orthogonal to the range of $A$. The orthogonal decomposition by a closed subspace into that range and its orthogonal complement givesIntegration over $u$ by the Gaussian integral, followed by integration over $\gamma$ using the Gamma distribution, yieldsThus the posterior distribution is proper, despite the improper prior; here $k\ge d$ follows from the zero null space assumption.

Completing the square in $u$ and collecting the powers of $\gamma$ give the two conditional distributions:Explicitly their probability density functions areFor a joint maximum a posteriori estimate relative to $dud\gamma$, first fix $\gamma >0$. The unique maximizing $u$ is $u_{\ast }$. The remaining log density is $(a-1)\log \gamma -b_0\gamma$ plus a constant. Consequently, if $a>1$,The stated assumptions do not always imply $a>1$. If $a=1$, the supremum occurs as $\gamma \downarrow 0$ but is not attained on $\gamma >0$; if $a<1$, the density is unbounded there. In either case there is no joint maximum a posteriori estimate in the stated parameter space. Calling zero a boundary mode does not make it an admissible positive precision.

If “MAP estimators” instead means separate modes of the marginal distributions, integration givesThus the marginal maximum a posteriori estimate of $u$ is always $u_{\ast }$, and that of $\gamma$ is $(s-1)/b_0$ when $s>1$, with the same nonattainment at zero when $s\le 1$. Joint and marginal maximization are different operations; the usual joint interpretation gives the preceding boxed pair.