Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Oxford / 2015 / Prelims / Mathematics III / 4 / b / i

First the expected value of the absorption time is finite. From any interior state, consecutive leftward moves lead to absorption within at most $n$ steps, with probability at least $p=3^{-n}$. By independence of the subsequent steps, the probability of surviving $jn$ steps is at most $(1-p{)}^j$. Summing this geometric series bounds the expected value of the absorption time by $n/p$.

Now apply first-step analysis. Starting from $k$ in the interior, one step is always used. Conditional on that step, the remaining expected values are $e_{k+1}$, $e_k$, and $e_{k-1}$, each with probability $1/3$. The law of total expectation therefore givesThe term $1$ remains even when the particle stays at $k$, because a step has elapsed. Rearranging gives