Past exam of the mathematics course of the year 1 of the natural sciences course of the University of Cambridge / 2019 / Paper 1 / 16 / d / Solution

Let $C={\overline{B}}_1\cap B_2$. Under replacement its joint probability iswhereas without replacement it isIn the latter case the first removed ball is non-blue, so all $N_B$ blue balls remain. Applying Bayes' theorem and cancelling the positive common factors yields the posterior replacement probability after different-colour draws:It does not depend on $N_B$. To prove the requested bound directly,Equality holds at $r=0$ and $r=1$, and the inequality is strict between them. Its sketch joins $(0,0)$ to $(1,1)$, stays below the diagonal, and is increasing and convex becauseThe interpretation is that removing a non-blue ball increases the chance of blue on the second draw; seeing the two different colours therefore favours the no-replacement explanation.