Past exam of the probability, measure and martingales course of the University of Oxford / 2023 / 3 / a / ii / Solution

Put $P_n=X_n{Y}_n{Z}_n$. Before $\tau$, all three players are active. Each unordered pair is selected with probability $1/3$, and each direction of transfer then has conditional probability $1/2$. Given the current holdings $(x,y,z)$, a transfer within the first pair has mean productFor transfers within the other two pairs the analogous values are $xyz-y$ and $xyz-x$. Averaging over pairs givesAt and after elimination the product is zero, since an eliminated player never re-enters. In particular the stopped process has incrementThe indicator function is ${\mathcal{F}}_n$-measurable, and the expression in parentheses has zero conditional expectation on its support. The stopped process is adapted and integrable: at fixed $n$, its absolute value is bounded by $N^3+nN/3$. HenceThis is the product martingale for three-player token exchange.