Past exam of the probability, statistics and options I course of the University of Oxford / 2007 / O / 3 / Solution

Minimizing the squared residual norm gives the normal equationsFull column rank makes $X^{T}X$ invertible. With columns corresponding to $1,x,x^2-4$, the design matrix isSymmetry gives zero cross products between the odd column and either even column, and $\sum (x^2-4)=28-28=0$ gives the remaining orthogonality. Their squared norms are seven, 28 and 84, so $X^{T}X=\mathrm{diag}(7,28,84)$. ThereforeSince the error covariance is ${\sigma }^{2}I$, least squares has covariance ${\sigma }^2(X^{T}X{)}^{-1}$. ThusThe estimators have zero covariances. independence would require an additional distributional assumption such as Gaussian errors; the stated mean and variance assumptions alone give only the covariance calculation.