Past exam of the Probability, statistics and options II course of the University of Oxford / 2008 / O / 5 / Solution

For a sample size $m\ge 2$ define $\overline{X}=m^{-1}{\sum }_i{X}_i$ and $S_X^2=(m-1{)}^{-1}{\sum }_i(X_i-\overline{X}{)}^2$. The normal-sample theorem givesIt also states that the mean and sample variance are independent. Combining (i) and (ii), and the independence across samples, the correctly centred pivot isThe source reverses the mean difference inside the subtraction. Its literal statistic is generally noncentral when ${\mu }_X\ne {\mu }_Y$, rather than having a central Student distribution. Under the null hypothesis both differences are zero, so this misprint does not change the requested null test.

For a two-sided level-$\alpha$ test reject when $|T|>t_{m+n-2,1-\alpha /2}$. In the numerical example the pooled variance is $0.038$, the standard error is $\sqrt{0.038(2/5)}\approx 0.12329$, and $T\approx -2.190$. There are eight degrees of freedom and the supplied critical value is $2.31$. Thus do not reject equal mean cell volume at the 5% level. This does not establish equality of the means; it states that the observed difference does not cross this test's two-sided threshold.

Age matching introduces a shared block factor: the two observations in a pair can be associated, and their age-dependent means also undermine the simple unblocked independent-samples model. A paired t-test on the within-pair drug-minus-placebo differences accounts for that design, assuming independent pairs and the corresponding normal-difference model. Shared age variation cancels in those differences; positive within-pair association reduces their variance and can increase power, although the reduction in degrees of freedom means improvement is not automatic. The paired test cannot be computed from the two marginal means and variances alone: the within-pair differences or covariance are needed.