Past exam of the topics in applied mathematics course of the University of Oxford / 2008 / A / 1 / c / iii / Solution

Yes: there is a quasistatic hysteresis loop. Equilibrium points lie on the mathematical model parameter curve $a=-P(N)$. Its two saddle-node bifurcations occur at the stationary points computed in part (a), at mathematical model parameter valuesBetween these values there are two attracting branches separated by a repelling branch. Starting below $a_{\mathrm{down}}$ and increasing $a$ slowly, a solution follows the lower attracting branch. This branch persists through the bistability interval and ends only at $a_{\mathrm{up}}$, where it meets the repelling branch in a saddle-node bifurcation. The solution then moves to the upper attracting branch.

If the direction of mathematical model parameter change is reversed, the upper branch persists until $a_{\mathrm{down}}$, where a different saddle-node bifurcation forces the downward transition. The two transition values differ, and both lie inside the allowed range $[-1/2,1/2]$. Thus the biological population selected at an intermediate mathematical model parameter value depends on its prior branch. This is the equilibrium point hysteresis shown in the branch diagram; finite-rate passage can additionally delay the jumps near the saddle-node bifurcations.