Peierls circuit bound for one-independent percolation ($\mathbb{P}(\text{specified closed dual circuit of length }\ell )\le q^{\ell /4}$)

If each bond has closed probability at most $q$ in one-independent bond percolation on the square lattice, a set of $\ell$ bonds contains a matching in a graph of size at least $\ell /4$: divide horizontal bonds by the parity of their left endpoint and vertical bonds by the parity of their lower endpoint. Each of the four classes is a matching. Mutual independence in the largest class proves the circuit bound. There are at most $4\ell 3^{\ell }$ dual circuits of length $\ell$ surrounding the origin. For sufficiently small $q$, the sum of these circuit probabilities is less than one, so the origin has a positive chance of belonging to an infinite percolation cluster.