Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2013 iii Paper 34 4 a Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-07
A scoring rule in the reward convention gives for announcing the probability distribution and then observing . Under genuine belief , the expected score isA proper scoring rule satisfies for every admissible . A strictly proper scoring rule additionally requires equality only when the distributions coincide:The expected scores must be well defined. A loss convention reverses the inequalities, but the question uses rewards.
Scoring rule Created 2026-10-07 Updated 2026-10-14
A scoring rule turns a probability distribution forecast and an observed outcome into a number. For example, a forecast of rain with probability should express uncertainty more usefully than a bare prediction of rain. A scoring rule lets us compare such forecasts after observations arrive, and its choice determines whether exaggerating confidence pays. A proper scoring rule rewards an honest account of uncertainty in expected value.
There are two sign conventions. A reward is maximized; a loss function is minimized. The conversion reverses every comparison. Here the linear probability score is a reward, while the binary Brier score and the negative logarithmic scoring rule are losses. Calling all three a "score" without specifying the direction would hide the central difference.
Throughout the binary examples, the random variable has a Bernoulli distribution with actual success probability , and the report assigns probability to and to . The value is stipulated by this statistical model; it is not inferred from data or a claim that a forecasting system is calibrated. In practice the true predictive distribution is unknown, and the relevant is the conditional probability of success given the information available when the forecast is issued. Propriety evaluates incentives for reporting that predictive distribution; it does not supply the unknown probabilities.