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With one A and one B observation per stratum and no ties, the stratified log-rank statistic receives a nonzero contribution only when the earlier observation is a failure while both remain at risk. It is $+1/2$ if A fails first and $-1/2$ if B fails first. After the first observation, only one member remains and every further observed-minus-expected contribution is zero. Under an exchangeable null with independent censoring, conditional on being informative the two signs have equal probability, with mean zero and variance $1/4$. Thus standardization is the normal approximation to a sign test on informative pairs. Failure-time distances do not affect this statistic.

Let $X_i=Y_i-{\theta }_0$. Under the symmetric continuous null hypothesis, positive and negative signs have probability $1/2$ and zeros have probability zero. For the sign test, take $N_{+}={\sum }_i{1}_{\{X_i>0\}}$ and reject for small values: $N_{+}\sim \mathrm{Bin}(n,1/2)$ under the null. Choose $k$ with ${\mathbb{P}}_0(N_{+}\le k)\le \alpha$; randomization at the next value attains exact size if desired. The lower tail is appropriate for $\theta <{\theta }_0$.

For the Wilcoxon signed-rank test, rank $|X_i|$ increasingly and put $W_{+}={\sum }_i{R}_i{1}_{\{X_i>0\}}$. Continuous observations have no absolute-value ties almost surely. Conditional on the absolute values, the signs are independent fair signs because symmetry makes the sign independent of magnitude. Hence $W_{+}$ has the distribution of ${\sum }_{r=1}^{n}r{B}_r$ for independent Bernoulli random variables $B_r$ with parameter $1/2$. Again reject in the lower tail, using this exact subset-sum distribution or a normal approximation. Independence gives the requested null moments:For a symmetric kernel $h$ of fixed order $m$, a one-sample U-statistic is $U_n={\left(\genfrac{}{}{0ex}{}{n}{m}\right)}^{-1}{\sum }_{i_1<\cdots <i_m}h(X_{i_1},\dots ,X_{i_m})$. State the U-statistic central limit theorem: if $\mathbb{E}{h}^2<\infty$, $\eta =\mathbb{E}h$, and ${\zeta }_1=\mathrm{Var}(\mathbb{E}[h\mid X_1])>0$, then $\sqrt{n}(U_n-\eta )\Rightarrow N(0,m^2{\zeta }_1)$. The nondegeneracy condition is important.

For $h(x,y)=1_{\{x+y>0\}}$, its order-two U-statistic satisfies the exact Wilcoxon signed-rank statistic identityTo prove it, in an unordered pair the sign of the sum is the sign of whichever observation has larger absolute value. Counting the pairs for which a positive observation is larger contributes its rank minus one; its own positive-sign indicator supplies the remaining one.

Write $F_0$ for the distribution function of $X$ under the null. Symmetry gives $\eta =1/2$ andThe probability integral transform makes $F_0(X_1)$ uniform on $(0,1)$, so ${\zeta }_1=1/12$. Therefore $\sqrt{n}(U_n-1/2)\Rightarrow N(0,1/3)$. The centred $N_{+}$ is $O_p(\sqrt{n})$ and is negligible on the scale $n^{3/2}$ of $W_{+}$. Combining the exact decomposition and its mean givesThe lower-tail approximate level-$\alpha$ rejection rule compares this standardized statistic with ${\Phi }^{-1}(\alpha )$; a half-unit continuity correction can refine discrete-tail calculations.

Only sets 4, 5, 7 and 8 have an earlier failure with both members at risk. Sets 4 and 8 have B fail first and favor A, giving $6+3=9$ informative pairs. Sets 5 and 7 have A fail first and favor B, giving $18+9=27$. Both-censored pairs contribute zero; in sets 3 and 6 the earlier observation is censoring, so the later failure occurs with no remaining comparator and also contributes zero.

There are thus 36 informative independent strata. The stratified log-rank statistic, its null variance, and its standardized value areEquivalently the squared statistic is nine. The normal approximation gives a two-sided p-value $2[1-\Phi (3)]<0.0027$ using the stated bound. The exact conditional sign test instead gives $2{\sum }_{k=0}^9\left(\genfrac{}{}{0ex}{}{36}{k}\right)2^{-36}\approx 0.00393$; the slight difference is discreteness rather than a different direction of effect. There is strong evidence favoring Method B, which is associated with the later failure in three quarters of the informative pairs, under the test assumptions.

Among the nine informative pairs, the active patient fails first once and the placebo patient fails first eight times. The conditional partial likelihood is proportional tosoUnder $H_0$, the number of active-first failures is $\mathrm{Binomial}(9,1/2)$. The exact two-sided sign test hasso the data reject at the 5% level and favor lower hazard under active treatment.