Single-category sea-ice thermodynamic model ($h(t)$)

A single-category model represents local ice by one thickness $h$ and one surface temperature $T_s$. With basal freezing temperature $T_m$, atmospheric temperature $T_A$, thermal conductivity $k$ and atmospheric heat transfer coefficient ${\lambda }_A$, quasistatic thermal conduction giveswhile $T_s<T_m$. If $F_O$ is upward ocean heat flux, the Stefan condition gives $\rho L\dot{h}={\lambda }_A(T_m-T_A)/(1+{\lambda }_{A}h/k)-F_O$. During surface melting, $T_s=T_m$ and $\rho L\dot{h}=-{\lambda }_A(T_A-T_m)-F_O$ when $T_A\ge T_m$. Thickness is constrained to be nonnegative, and the open-water energy balance applies after complete melt.

In a cycle starting at the atmospheric temperature maximum, positive thickness at the next maximum is a peak-temperature survival test. It is not sufficient for perennial ice: with sinusoidal forcing, surface melting continues for another quarter-cycle. If ocean heat was neglected during winter growth, the leading thickness at the next temperature maximum isLiteral year-round survival must be tested through the end of the subsequent melt season, rather than at the temperature maximum alone. For the specified forcing with annual mean atmospheric temperature $T_m$, the zero-ocean-heat upper bound on winter growth obeys $h_m^2/2+h_m/a=2H^2$, where $a={\lambda }_A/k$ and $H^2=\kappa \tau /\mathcal{S}$, with $\mathcal{S}$ the inverse Stefan number. Thus $h_m<2a{H}^2$, already less than the atmospheric melt over the full subsequent warm half-cycle. Positive ocean heat only strengthens the failure to produce literal perennial ice from an ice-free start.

For $T_A=T_m+\Delta T\cos (t/\tau )$ and $F_O={\lambda }_O(T_O-T_m)$, put $r=F_O/({\lambda }_A\Delta T)$. Open-water freezing requires $r<1$ and starts at $t_1=\tau \arccos (-r)$. Neglecting ocean heat during growth is a bulk approximation when $r(1+{\lambda }_A{h}_m/k)\ll 1$. It cannot hold pointwise at the onset or maximum, where the atmospheric removal and ocean input are comparable. The actual maximum satisfies $-\cos (t_2/\tau )=r[1+{\lambda }_{A}h(t_2)/k]$; neglecting $F_O$ gives $t_2=3\pi \tau /2$.