Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2011 ia Paper 2 3F c Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-14
Construct independent copies of , also independent of , and define the random sum , taking the empty sum to be zero. Independence gives, conditional on ,The law of total expectation gives the transform composition for an independent random sumThe summands are nonnegative, so this equality is valid also as an extended-valued expectation. Where the right-hand side is finite, it is the ordinary moment-generating function of the constructed random sum. The construction does not assert a finite moment-generating function near zero for arbitrary : heavy tails can prevent this. For example a nonnegative with no positive exponential moments and already shows the necessary qualification.
Probability generating function of an independent random sum Created 2026-10-18 Updated 2026-10-25
Let be a nonnegative integer-valued random variable, and let be nonnegative integer-valued independent and identically distributed random variables, with common probability generating function . Require the whole sequence to be independent of , so are jointly independent. Set the random sumwith the empty sum equal to zero. Given , the probability generating function of an independent sum yields the conditional expectation . By the law of total expectation,The composition is valid because . Merely making the independent of each other does not preserve their conditional laws when depends on them. This is the probability generating function version of transform composition for an independent random sum.
For a Poisson distribution count with mean , substitution into gives a compound Poisson distribution withIf the jumps have finite second moment, conditioning also gives mean and variance . The extra spread comes from randomness in the count as well as randomness in the jumps.[ref]
Random: Probability, Mathematical Statistics, Stochastic Processes by Kyle Siegrist. The Poisson Process, Compound Poisson Processes, Definition; Properties: mean, variance, and generating-function conditioning proof; Compound Poisson Distributions: count independent of the sequence
For an original example, choose and jumps taking values one and two with equal probability. Keep the independence assumptions above. ThenHere , , and . The law of total expectation and law of total variance giveThus the aggregate is not itself a Poisson distribution, whose mean and variance would coincide.
To recover the probability mass function without repeated differentiation, use and compare coefficients:For example, . As an independent check, expanding gives
The plotted probability masses stop at 20, although the support of a probability distribution is unbounded. The omitted tail probability isThis model has bounded jumps and an unbounded count. Its entire probability generating function does give a finite moment-generating function at every real argument, but the general random sum composition only guarantees the stated domain.
