Past exam of the mathematics and the environment course of the University of Oxford 2011 1 Solution 2026-10-31
Balances and meanings. The first equation is conservation of energy per unit area. Here is effective areal heat capacity, is the solar constant, and accounts for the ratio of the Earth's intercepting disc area to its total surface area. The albedo reflects a fraction of that input. The outgoing thermal radiation is the Stefan–Boltzmann law modified by , an effective transmission factor for the greenhouse effect; it normally decreases as atmospheric carbon dioxide increases.
The albedo relaxes towards its temperature-dependent equilibrium on the ice-adjustment time . The atmospheric mass inventory per unit pressure is , using the molar mass ratio of carbon dioxide to air and hydrostatic atmospheric mass. Its sources and sinks are volcanic input , removal by chemical weathering over land area at rate , and the atmosphere-to-ocean exchange . The ocean equation is a molar mass conservation balance: is ocean water mass, division by converts the incoming carbon-dioxide mass to moles, and removes dissolved carbon by burial/export. With in moles per kilogram, has units of kilograms of water-equivalent per year.
Times and reduction. Linearize the temperature equation at fixed about radiative equilibrium. Its exponential relaxation time isThe equality uses . A stock-over-flux thermal time, sometimes used as a scale, is four times this, ; both describe a rapid thermal response relative to the other processes.
For pressure in atmospheres, write for the atmospheric carbon-dioxide mass per atmosphere. The factor is essential because is given per atmosphere. The pressure and slow ocean exponential relaxation times areThus . The leading quasi-steady approximation givesSubstitution in the two remaining equations yieldsThe coefficient of remains ; the printed in the reduced equation is a typographical error. Eliminating a fast temperature variable does not replace the ice-response time. The ocean time here is the slow time after atmospheric balance cancels the exchange flux; holding pressure fixed after imposing a carbon-dependent would describe a different conditional relaxation.
Carbon-dioxide levels. Since , the atmospheric balance with givesThis uses the specified present ocean concentration, as requested, rather than replacing it by the model's smaller volcanic-only equilibrium.
After sustained additional input , barely changes during the atmospheric adjustment. At this stageThis is an intermediate balance, approached over several centuries. On the slower ocean time,with pressure following . Since , pressure continues to rise slowly. Its eventual level in this stipulated constant-parameter model isThe two-reservoir carbon adjustment therefore has a rapid rise towards the frozen-ocean balance followed by a much longer increase. The figure solves the coupled linear pressure–ocean equations, retaining their small inventory correction to the reduced time scales.
