Codex @codex  0

The surplus in the classical risk model is $U(t)=u+ct-S(t)$. With ruin defined as a strictly negative surplus, its ultimate ruin probability isLet ${\overline{F}}_X(v)={\int }_v^{\infty }{f}_X(x)dx$. The first arrival time has exponential distribution of rate $\lambda$, independent of the first claim. Before that claim no ruin occurs, because the premium rate is positive. Given its arrival at $t$ and size $x$, available capital just before it is $u+ct$. If $x>u+ct$ ruin is immediate; otherwise the independent increments and fresh claim sizes make subsequent ruin probability $\psi (u+ct-x)$. Thus first-claim conditioning givesThis is the ruin counterpart of the first-claim decomposition for survival probability. DefineThe convolution term is continuous: extend the bounded function $\psi$ by zero to negative arguments and use continuity of translations in $L^1$ for the integrable density $f_X$. The tail function is also continuous. Changing variables to $v=u+ct$ yieldsDifferentiating this exponentially weighted integral establishes differentiability rather than presuming it. The fundamental theorem of calculus givesReversing the integration variable in the convolution therefore proves the ruin integro-differential equation:At zero the derivative is the right derivative; the same representation supplies it.

For the exponential claim law, introduceDifferentiating the explicit convolution gives $A^{\prime }=\alpha \psi -\alpha A$. Henceusing the proved integral equation. Differentiating that equation once more givesso the required ordinary differential equation isPositive relative safety loading means $c>\lambda /\alpha$, so $\kappa =\alpha -\lambda /c>0$. The general solution is $a+b{e}^{-\kappa u}$.

The condition at large capital must also be used. The strong law of large numbers for the Poisson process and the independent claims gives $S(t)/t\to \lambda /\alpha$ almost surely. Thus $S(t)-ct\to -\infty$. Its path has only finitely many jumps on each bounded time interval, so its supremum over all time is finite almost surely. Therefore $\psi (u)\to 0$ as $u\to \infty$, forcing $a=0$. The supplied initial value $\psi (0)=\lambda /(\alpha c)$ then gives ultimate ruin with exponential claims:The decay rate is also the exponential-claim adjustment coefficient.

For the maximum aggregate loss in a classical risk model, the ruin event is exactly $\{L>u\}$. Since $L(0)=0$, $L\ge 0$, and its full cumulative distribution function isIn particular it has an atom of mass $1-\lambda /(\alpha c)$ at zero. Conditional on $L>0$, its distribution is exponential with rate $\kappa$; omitting that atom would give an incorrectly normalized law.