Unnormalized time autocorrelation ($C(t,\tau )=⟨X(t)X(t+\tau )⟩$)

The raw same-observable time correlation $C(t,\tau )=⟨X(t)X(t+\tau )⟩$. For a stationary process, it equals $⟨X{⟩}^2+\mathrm{Cov}(X(t),X(t+\tau ))$. Its connected part is the autocovariance; unlike the normalized statistical autocorrelation, no division by the variance is imposed. The distinction matters for fluctuations around a nonzero equilibrium point.

Near the stable Adler phase equation point $\alpha =\arcsin (\omega /ϵ)$, linearized noise obeys an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with relaxation rate $\kappa =\sqrt{{ϵ}^2-{\omega }^2}$. Its harmonic-model raw correlation is ${\alpha }^2+(T_{\mathrm{eff}}/\kappa )e^{-\kappa |\tau |}$. Nonlinear drift also shifts the local mean at order $T_{meff}$. This describes times after relaxation but before appreciable phase slips; it is not a stationary infinite-time correlation of the unwrapped phase at fixed nonzero noise.