Let be the population means of the numerical vaccination intention score in the two recorded groups. The two-sided hypothesis test compares
The sample means are and , giving a difference of sample means of approximately 0.01988 score points, in the order group zero minus group one. The reported group counts are 1,866 and 262; seven observations have a missing group indicator.
Welch's t-test divides that estimated difference by its estimated standard error. Its reported test statistic is , with approximately statistical degrees of freedom. This is an unequal-variance comparison; fractional statistical degrees of freedom are appropriate for the Welch approximation. The two groups need not have equal sample sizes or equal population variances.[ref]
The reported p-value is . Under the specified equal-mean null hypothesis and sampling model, a p-value measures the probability of a result at least as extreme as the observed one. It is not a posterior probability that the null hypothesis is true. There is no rejection at a prespecified 5% significance level. The observed difference of sample means is tiny relative to its estimated standard error.
The 95% confidence interval is approximately
It includes zero and differences in either direction. The interval's coverage refers to repeated use of the procedure under its assumptions, rather than to a probability assigned to this fixed unknown parameter or to the spread of individual scores. Nonrejection does not establish that the two population means are identical.
Simple random sampling supports the sampling interpretation, but the score is bounded and its raw distribution need not be a normal distribution. The large group sizes can support an approximate normal sampling distribution of the sample means under regularity conditions. The supplied observational study does not identify a causal explanation of any difference, and the numeric coding of the group labels creates no biological or ordinal interpretation.
Each frequency table describes a marginal distribution, rather than a relationship among variables. The recorded two-category gender variable has 1,042 male and 1,093 female responses: 48.81% and 51.19%. It is a nominal categorical variable. Its ordering in the table supplies no quantitative ranking; a cumulative percentage over those arbitrarily ordered labels has no invariant substantive meaning.
Household income is an ordinal categorical variable with six bands. Their shares, from the lowest band upward, are , , , , and . The highest band alone contains 1,105 respondents, slightly more than half the sample. The bands are not a numerical income measurement with equal steps: the top band is open-ended, so an exact sample mean income cannot be recovered from these category counts alone.
The agreement item is also an ordinal categorical variable. Combining the first two categories gives
Neutral responses account for ; the two disagreement categories together account for . These percentages describe the measured vaccination intention item, rather than actual vaccination status.
All three tables have 2,135 valid observations and no missing values for these variables, so their percentages and valid percentages coincide. This is different from the seven missing group-indicator values in question 1. The income and agreement columns sum to because the displayed percentages were rounded separately. That rounding is compatible with counts summing exactly to 2,135.
The tables alone cannot show whether the gender composition differs by income, or whether vaccination intention differs between groups. Those are questions about a joint contingency table and its conditional probabilities, not about separate marginal distributions.
For each income band, compare the response distribution within the two gender groups. The table below combines agree and strongly agree only to make one comparable contrast visible. The Pearson chi-squared statistic and its p-value still use all five original response categories, with four statistical degrees of freedom in every band. Income labels are thousands of USD per year; finite upper bounds are excluded.
Income bandMale agreementFemale agreementDifference in percentage pointsCramér's V
Under 10k11738.64%34.25%4.393.4330.48810.171
10k–20k21235.90%35.07%0.825.4570.24350.160
20k–30k24552.17%39.22%12.965.8930.20730.155
30k–40k27854.90%37.50%17.4010.1170.038510.191
40k–50k17854.74%38.55%16.186.6870.15340.194
50k and above110571.16%50.21%20.9563.7650.240
In the lowest-income band, combined agreement differs by only about percentage points. The full distributions still differ descriptively: strong disagreement is in the male group and in the female group. The omnibus Pearson chi-squared test does not reject independence at 5%, but that decision does not prove equal distributions.
In the 10k–20k band, combined agreement is almost the same. Nevertheless, strong agreement is higher in the female group, versus , while the less intense agreement category is higher in the male group, versus . Collapsing the categories hides that distinction. The full-distribution p-value is approximately .
In the 20k–30k band, combined agreement is higher in the male group by about percentage points. Strong agreement alone is versus . The observed difference is therefore larger than in the two lowest bands, despite its full-table p-value remaining above 5%.
In the 30k–40k band, combined agreement differs by about percentage points, with fewer male neutral responses, versus . The full-table p-value of is nominally significant at 5%. In the 40k–50k band, the combined agreement gap is a similar percentage points, but the full-table p-value is . These labels are not a direct comparison between the two effects: significant and nonsignificant results need not differ significantly.
In the highest-income band, strong agreement is in the male group and in the female group. Combined agreement differs by about percentage points. This band has both the largest sample size and the largest Cramér's V of the six tables, with a very small p-value. Its particularly strong evidence reflects both precision and an observed difference in the distribution.
All six minimum expected frequencies exceed five: approximately , , , , and . Thus sparse expected counts do not provide a reason to reject the usual chi-squared distribution approximation here. If the six hypothesis tests form one exploratory family, a Bonferroni correction would use for each test; only the highest-income result crosses that threshold. This qualifies the unadjusted 30k–40k result without turning its observed contrast into zero.
In the elaboration model, the larger agreement gaps in the middle and upper bands provide a descriptive pattern of specification: the conditional contrast varies with income. This is not a Simpson's paradox reversal, because the combined agreement difference has the same sign in every band. Nor is the larger high-income effect size established simply by comparing its p-value with the other p-values. A formal claim of effect modification requires a stated scale and an appropriate comparison of the effects.
The pooled comparison also mixes different income compositions. The highest-income band contains of the male group but of the female group. Average each group's six agreement proportions over the same pooled income weights using standardization with common weights. This gives
The crude difference was percentage points, so common weighting attenuates it by about percentage points but leaves a substantial descriptive contrast. With average-group rather than pooled-person weights, the symmetric decomposition of a stratified mean difference instead gives an exact split into approximately percentage points from conditional contrasts and percentage points from composition. These are different explicitly defined descriptive summaries, not estimates of a causally mediated share.
Figure 1. . Original calculations from the printed aggregate counts. The outcome combines agree and strongly agree; the two gender labels are those recorded in the paper. Error bars are individual approximate 95% Wilson intervals, not simultaneous intervals or a formal test of between-band effect modification. The right panel uses the same pooled income frequencies for both groups. No individual observations were reconstructed. Details.
An antecedent income variable could be considered in a confounding explanation, whereas an income variable on an assumed causal pathway would enter an interpretation through causal mediation. The conditional tables do not distinguish these causal structures. They also do not identify whether any adjustment introduces collider bias. The supported conclusion is income-dependent descriptive association plus a measurable composition difference, with causal interpretation left conditional on additional assumptions.
The fitted simple linear regression for the numerical vaccination intention scale is
Here age is measured in years. The fitted mean increases by about 0.01649 score points per year, or 0.16489 points per decade. The regression coefficient is an association across respondents, not an estimate of how an individual would change on ageing or of a causal effect of age.
The standard error of the age regression coefficient is . Dividing gives , with 2,133 residual statistical degrees of freedom, corresponding to fitted residual degrees. The reported two-sided p-value is , so the zero-slope null hypothesis is rejected at a prespecified 5% level, but not at 1%. An approximate 95% confidence interval is
Its positive endpoints are consistent with the test decision; they do not make the slope large.
The coefficient of determination is , so the fitted age trend accounts for only 0.2744% of the observed score variation, compared with an intercept-only prediction. Its adjusted value is . In an intercept-containing simple linear regression, the positive slope implies a positive Pearson correlation coefficient . The reported overall statistic, on one and 2,133 degrees of freedom, agrees with the squared slope test statistic up to printed rounding.
The residual standard deviation estimate is score points, much larger than the fitted decade contrast. At age 50 the fitted value is about , and at 60 it is about . Across the observed ages 19 to 91, the fitted mean changes by only points. Statistical detection with 2,135 observations therefore coexists with weak individual prediction.
The intercept predicts at age zero, outside the observed age range; it should not be given a substantive infant interpretation. Centring age at its observed sample mean, , gives
which agrees with the reported score sample mean of after rounding. The bounded scale and upper quartile at its maximum motivate attention to a possible ceiling effect; they do not establish homoskedasticity, a normal error distribution or a satisfactory linear conditional mean. Five residual quantiles cannot replace a residual plot or checks of the sampling assumptions.
There is also a source consistency problem. The output reports that all 2,135 records have age and score present, that the attained minimum score is one, and that ages lie between 19 and 91. The positive fitted slope therefore places every fitted value between and . By residual extrema when response extrema are attained, the minimum regression residual must satisfy
At the observation with score one, its residual is already at most . The printed minimum residual, , lies outside this necessary interval. Those summaries cannot all describe the same complete sample and fitted model. The discrepancy is too large to be explained by the displayed rounding. It is present in the original PDF; the individual records would be needed to establish which printed item is wrong.
Figure 1. . The left panel uses the reported fitted coefficients over the observed age range, with the numerical response scale shown for context. It contains no reconstructed individual observations. The right panel compares the printed minimum regression residual with necessary algebraic bounds derived from the attained response minimum. That interval is a consistency constraint, not a confidence interval. Details.