Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2024 iii Paper 218 2 b Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-09-25
Choose to minimize an estimate of out-of-sample mean squared prediction error, commonly K-fold cross-validation or a separate validation set. As increases, the coefficient vector is shrunk toward zero. This generally increases bias of an estimator but decreases variance of an estimator; the minimizing value balances the two contributions in the bias-variance tradeoff. The independent test set in the question can assess the final choice, but repeatedly selecting on that same set would cause data leakage.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2025 iii Paper 218 1 f Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-09-25
Among all depth-one regression tree splits, the best split separates the second observation from the first and third by cutting advert1 between and . The test point with advert1 equal to zero reaches the leaf containing responses and , so the output is their arithmetic mean,This decision stump makes a piecewise-constant prediction far outside the observed predictor range and cannot extrapolate the spending trend towards the origin. Its shallow structure and leaf averaging keep its variance of an estimator modest, while that extrapolation failure can produce substantial bias of an estimator.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2025 iii Paper 218 3 b Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-09-25
The -nearest-neighbour classifier finds the training predictors nearest to and returns the majority class among their labels. Increasing averages more labels and reduces variance of an estimator, but uses observations farther from and therefore increases bias of an estimator; decreasing reverses this bias-variance tradeoff.