For independent identically distributed observations with continuous cumulative distribution function , fix the maximum of the first observations and let be the first subsequent observation exceeding it. The probability integral transform gives density on . Conditional on , has a geometric distribution of parameter . ThereforeThe masses sum to one, so the waiting time is finite almost surely, but the tail-sum formula for expectation gives . These conclusions require only continuity of , not a density or a strictly increasing distribution function.
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