Arbitrage

An arbitrage is an allowed self-financing portfolio with zero initial wealth, nonnegative terminal portfolio wealth almost surely under the physical probability measure $P$, and strictly positive terminal wealth with positive probability. In a finite model where every state has positive probability, nonnegativity means no loss in any state. Positive expected return alone does not establish arbitrage: losses may still occur.

For the binomial market example, suppose the European call option sells for 13 while its replicating portfolio costs $250/21$. Sell the call, buy its replicating portfolio, and lend the surplus $13-250/21=23/21$ in the bank account. The initial net cost is zero. At maturity the call obligation and portfolio cancel in either state, leaving $(21/20)(23/21)=23/20$. A price below $250/21$ permits the reversed construction, using short selling and borrowing. This is the law of one price made operational; the assumed trading permissions are essential.