Independent mutation counts in coalescent epochs
ID: independent-mutation-counts-in-coalescent-epochs
The epoch lengths in Kingman's coalescent are independent random variables. Conditional on these lengths, mutation counts on disjoint tree pieces are independent Poisson random variables. Their conditional laws depend only on the corresponding epoch length, so integrating the product of conditional laws against the independent epoch laws leaves independent unconditional epoch mutation counts. This justifies adding their variances, rather than assuming independence from conditional independence alone.
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