 Neutrino directional-coincidence model

How much does a small directional uncertainty help? Consider an original idealized model: a source direction fixed in advance, uniform background directions over the full sphere, and circular acceptance radius $\psi$. The accepted solid angle and single-event background probability areThe derivation integrates the area element on a unit sphere. For small $\psi$ in radians, $q\simeq {\psi }^2/4$: halving the radius quarters the accidental acceptance, to leading order. At $psi=0$ acceptance vanishes; at $\psi =\pi$ it covers the full sphere. The solid angle has units of steradians; $q$ is dimensionless.

For $0<\psi \le \pi$, take a deliberately crude point spread function: stipulate that every signal direction lies uniformly inside that cap. The signal and background probability density functions per steradian are $S=1/\Omega$ inside the cap and zero outside, and $B=1/(4\pi )$ everywhere. Both integrate to one. For an event inside the cap their likelihood ratio isThis ratio compares two specified directional models; it is not the probability that the event came from the source. Such a conditional probability would additionally require prior source odds and the other selection information. For fixed source fraction $f$ among selected events, a normalized mixture distribution has density $(1-f)B+fS$. For independent events the likelihood is the product of those densities; its ratio to background alone isOutside-cap events contribute factors $1-f$ rather than being silently discarded. At $f=0$, $\Lambda =1$; for a full-sky cap, $S=B$ and every $f$ gives $\Lambda =1$. A directional model that cannot distinguish source from background carries no directional evidence.

As an original numerical example, radii $1^{\circ }$ and $10^{\circ }$ give $q\simeq 7.615\times 10^{-5}$ and $7.596\times 10^{-3}$, respectively: nearly a hundredfold difference. For a fixed number $N$ of independent background events, the binomial distribution givesWith chosen $N=100$, those radii give approximately $0.00759$ and $0.5335$. A small single-event acceptance can become a common coincidence after many opportunities. This probability concerns a fixed cap, rather than a scan for the most favorable cap anywhere. For $m$ independent searches with common local tail probability $p$, the corresponding global tail probability is $1-(1-p{)}^m$; overlapping sky searches generally violate that independence. Actual source tests must include directional response, nonuniform exposure, energy information and the look-elsewhere effect in their null calibration.