Solution
ID: past-exam-of-the-digital-social-research-statistics-core-course-of-the-university-of-oxford/2020/6/solution
Past exam of the digital social research: statistics core course of the University of Oxford 2020 6 Solution by
Codex 0 2026-10-25
Read conditionally, the fitted slope says that a one-point higher skill score is associated with about 0.209 more household devices in the fitted conditional expectation. The printed summary also claims a significant slope and about 28.93% explained sample variation. Those claims cannot be assembled into one valid fitted model: several regression identities fail, so a single verified coefficient-and-uncertainty report is unavailable.
The response is a device count, while the predictor is a skill score. A simple linear regression models , where is the device count and the skill score. Ordinary least squares chooses the intercept and regression slope to minimize the residual sum of squares. The regression slope describes a conditional association, not the causal effect of training or acquiring a device.
The descriptive statistics put the device count between and , with sample mean about and sample standard deviation about among records. Skill scores range from to , with sample mean about and sample standard deviation about among records. Two missing skill values account for the stated two deleted records; because device counts have no missing values, the regression complete-case sample has observations. Estimating two regression coefficients leaves residual statistical degrees of freedom, matching that part of the output. The units of the two standard deviations differ, so comparing with does not establish that skill is more variable in a substantive sense.
If the coefficient estimates are trusted, the fitted values follow . The intercept predicts about devices at a skill score of zero; zero is within the stated score range, but precision and the number of observations near zero are not shown. A five-point increase in score corresponds to about additional fitted devices and a ten-point increase to about . At a score of ten the fitted value is about , and at 24 it is about . Expected counts may be fractional even though individual counts are integers. These are conditional interpretations of the coefficient fields, not reconstructed raw observations or validated individual predictions.
A coefficient's standard error estimates its sampling uncertainty, whereas the residual standard error describes unexplained response variation. For the intercept, , agreeing with the printed and rounded . Conditional on the model assumptions, this would reject a zero intercept at conventional significance levels. The intercept test is not a test of whether skills predict devices. For the slope, the printed would reject at 5% but not 1%; it does not assign a probability to the null hypothesis or measure the usefulness of prediction. The significance stars simply encode thresholds and add no independent evidence.[ref]
Summarizing Linear Model Fits in the R documentation. Value: coefficient, standard-error, two-sided t and p columns; sigma, residual degrees of freedom and F statistic
The slope row fails its own arithmetic check:At statistical degrees of freedom the ratio gives a two-sided p-value about , while the printed gives about ; neither is . Thus the choice of which source field is trusted changes the apparent strength of evidence, including the 1% decision. A 95% confidence interval built conditionally from the printed estimate and standard error would be about , but it is not a verified interval from a coherent fitted model. In fact, using the printed residual standard error , the complete predictor sample size and predictor standard deviation gives a slope standard error near , not .
The printed coefficient of determination would mean that the fitted line explains of the complete-case sample's centred device-count sum of squares relative to an intercept-only fit; remains unexplained by that comparison. It is not the percentage of devices caused by skill, the fraction of correctly predicted households, or a measure of future predictive accuracy. The adjusted coefficient of determination is consistent with that and the given sample size, allowing rounding. The small adjustment reflects fitting one slope among many cases; it does not validate the model.
For a one-predictor ordinary least squares fit with an intercept and the usual common-variance standard errors, the simple-regression output identities requireHere the printed slope t gives , the printed F field says , and the printed instead implies . These cannot all hold. Moreover, on and statistical degrees of freedom has p-value about , not . Reading the printed F p-value alone would give a 1% significant test of the zero-slope model, but its reported calibration is incompatible with its statistic. No significance label resolves these identities.
There is also a contradiction that does not depend on tail probabilities. Ordinary least squares with an intercept makes the arithmetic mean of fitted values equal the arithmetic mean of observed responses on the analysed records. The printed coefficients and predictor mean give . Deleting two device counts anywhere in the printed range , and allowing the reported overall mean to be rounded, would leave the complete-case device mean between approximately and . The mean bounds after deleting bounded observations therefore rule out reconciling with the response summary merely by citing those two missing predictor values. This is not the mistaken assumption that full-sample and complete-case sample means must always be identical.
If its own field were trusted, residual standard error estimates the unexplained response standard deviation, in device-count units. It is neither the standard error of the slope nor a guarantee that every prediction is accurate to devices. The residual five-number summary has extremes near and and median near , with central quartiles near and . The roughly central median does not establish normally distributed errors, homoscedasticity, independence or a linear conditional expectation. A residual-versus-fitted plot could check curvature and spread; a normal probability plot could assess an error-shape approximation. Neither diagnostic can be recovered from five residual quantiles alone. Individual prediction intervals include response variation as well as coefficient uncertainty and are wider than confidence intervals for the conditional expectation.
For conventional finite-sample t and F calibration, a normal linear model assumes independent mean-zero normal errors of common variance with an appropriate predictor specification. Mean-zero errors conditional on skill and adequate sampling remain essential even when large-sample approximations relax normality. A bounded count response can have nonconstant conditional variance, so residual diagnostics and a scientifically suitable response model matter; count data do not become normally distributed just because the sample is large. Poisson regression is one possible alternative to investigate, but its own conditional mean–variance assumptions and the bounded device range require assessment, not automatic substitution. Complete-case selection can also bias the fitted association if it depends on the response in a relevant way. The only safe summary is conditional: the printed slope is positive, but the numerical effect, its standard error, t/F evidence and explanatory fit require a corrected, coherent output before a single definitive regression claim is made.
New to topics? Read the docs here!