Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2014/iii/paper-34/1/solution

Put for . This is the quantile function, rather than an ordinary inverse requiring strict increase. The limits of the distribution function at infinity make finite, and the fact that is a right-continuous function ensures . Consequently
Increasing shrinks the set in the infimum, so the quantile function is a monotone function. To prove the left continuity of the quantile function, fix and let . If , choose . Then , so some satisfies , a contradiction. Thus as . At a flat stretch of the distribution function, the quantile function may jump immediately to the right, consistent with this left-continuous convention.
For the uniform order statistic, count the observations at most . That count has the binomial distribution with parameters , giving
Differentiating makes adjacent terms telescope: use and . The probability density function is therefore
In particular, has the Beta distribution with parameters .
Write for the specified median. Continuity of the distribution function gives and no mass at , even if the distribution function has a flat stretch there. Thus has the binomial distribution with parameters . Except on a null event, the order-statistic confidence interval for a median covers exactly when . Symmetry of the binomial distribution makes its two failure probabilities equal. Alternatively, the probability integral transform gives
Hence the coverage is exactly , with
The asymmetric open/closed endpoint convention does not change the coverage because the continuous probability distribution assigns no mass to the median.

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