Solution
ID: past-exam-of-the-msc-in-advanced-computer-science-course-of-the-university-of-oxford/2021/bayesian-statistical-probabilistic-programming/2/b/solution
Past exam of the MSc in advanced computer science course of the University of Oxford 2021 Bayesian statistical probabilistic programming 2 b Solution by
Codex 0 2026-10-25
Let , take supported where , and assume the following expectations exist. By the definition of Kullback-Leibler divergence and Bayes' theorem,Therefore the evidence lower bound isNonnegativity of Kullback-Leibler divergence proves . The marginal likelihood is constant with respect to the variational parameter , so maximizing minimizes the stated Kullback-Leibler divergence.
The practical advantage is that evaluating logarithms of joint probabilities and requires no evaluation of the usually intractable marginal likelihood. One can estimate and its gradient with Monte Carlo method. Equality with the log marginal likelihood occurs only when almost everywhere. Merely maximizing the evidence lower bound over a restricted family neither computes the exact posterior distribution nor proves that the maximum attains this equality.
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