 Solution

Write $\ell =r/2$; the requested expression requires the positive even integer $r\ge 2$. Split the thin singular value decomposition after $\ell$ columns:Here $\Vert D_b{\Vert }_2={\sigma }_{\ell +1}=\Vert A-A_{\ell }{\Vert }_2$. Each column of a Gaussian random matrix is an orthogonally invariant random vector: its probability density function is proportional to $\exp (-\Vert z{\Vert }_2^2/2)$, and an orthogonal matrix preserves both $\Vert z{\Vert }_2$ and volume. Thus $V^{T}X$, where $V=[V_a,V_b]$, again has independent and identically distributed standard normal entries. In particular both displayed blocks have the Gaussian distributions needed below.

First prove a deterministic error bound for a randomized range finder. Put $P=Q{Q}^T$ and suppose ${\Omega }_a$ has full row rank. Its Moore-Penrose pseudoinverse is ${\Omega }_a^{†}={\Omega }_a^T({\Omega }_a{\Omega }_a^T{)}^{-1}$, so ${\Omega }_a{\Omega }_a^{†}=I_{\ell }$. The QR decomposition implies $(I_m-P)AX=0$, henceMultiplication by ${\Omega }_a^{†}$ expresses the missed leading columns in terms of the trailing columns. Substitution into $(I_m-P)A$ gives the exact identityFor any matrix $F$, the spectral norm of $[-FI]$ is $\sqrt{1+\Vert F{\Vert }_2^2}$, because its product with its transpose is $F{F}^T+I$. Using submultiplicativity of the operator norm, the orthonormality of $U_b$, and the contraction property of the orthogonal projection, we obtainThis estimate is deterministic and also covers rank-deficient $A$; if ${\sigma }_{\ell +1}=0$, its right-hand side vanishes.

Now use the paper's permitted singular value estimates. Apply the lower estimate to the tall matrix ${\Omega }_a^T$ of size $r\times \ell$, rather than to its wide transpose. It givesThe upper estimate for ${\Omega }_b$, transposing if necessary, givesThus, with $K=2/(1-1/\sqrt{2})$,Since $n/r>1$, the deterministic estimate yieldsThis proves the requested conclusion under the explicitly authorized estimates.

The probabilistic qualification is necessary. A Gaussian random matrix does not always have all its singular values between the two endpoints printed in the hint. Already a $1\times 1$ example would require $|Z|\le 2$ for every standard normal random variable $Z$, which fails with positive probability. The proof above holds on the event where the two block estimates hold. In a probabilistic formulation one supplies estimates for that event, usually allowing a positive margin in both endpoints; no failure probability is specified by the paper.

Nor can the requested inequality with one universal $C$ hold almost surely for every $A$. For example, take $n=m=3$, $r=2$, $A=\mathrm{diag}(L,1,1)$ with $L>1$, and a sampling matrixAt $X_0$, the sampled column space misses the first coordinate, so $\Vert A-\hat{A}{\Vert }_2=L$, whereas $\Vert A-A_1{\Vert }_2=1$. Choose $L>C\sqrt{3/2}$. Because $A{X}_0$ has full column rank, its orthogonal projection depends continuously on $X$ near $X_0$ through $AX(X^T{A}^{T}AX{)}^{-1}{X}^T{A}^T$. The strict violation persists in an open neighborhood of $X_0$. The joint Gaussian probability density function is positive there, so that neighborhood has positive probability. This identifies the missing qualification without weakening the conditional calculation.