Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-probability-measure-and-martingales-course-of-the-university-of-oxford/2023/1/d/ii/solution

Both and are increasing, so each has a limit of a sequence in . Apply part (c)(ii) to the martingale , whose bounded increments were verified in part (i).
On we would have . On we would have . Both events have probability zero by the convergence-or-oscillation conclusion. Hence the two divergence events agree up to a null set. Since means precisely that infinitely many occur,
Taking probabilities proves the displayed equality in the question. This stronger agreement of events is the Conditional Borel-Cantelli lemma.

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