Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2016 iii Paper 205 1 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-06
Write . The global Markov property for a directed acyclic graph says that, for every three pairwise disjoint vertex sets ,Thus graphical D-separation implies probabilistic conditional independence. Causal minimality means that has this global Markov property for a directed acyclic graph, but has it for no proper subgraph of obtained by deleting edges while keeping all vertices. Faithfulness of a directed acyclic graph means that the displayed implication is an equivalence: the conditional independences of are exactly the D-separations of . In particular it includes the global Markov property for a directed acyclic graph.
A causally minimal distribution can nevertheless have an extra independence. Here is a causally minimal nonfaithful Gaussian model. Take three independent random variables , each with the standard normal distribution, and setUse the Directed acyclic graph with edges , and . The equations give a directed acyclic graph factorization, so the global Markov property for a directed acyclic graph holds. Alternatively this complete acyclic graph imposes no nontrivial D-separations. But is independent of , even though the direct edge prevents their D-separation. Hence faithfulness of a directed acyclic graph fails.
To check causal minimality explicitly, the covariance matrix isThe linear transformation from to is invertible, so this is a nonsingular multivariate normal distribution. Deleting would require , whereas . Deleting would require , whereas the conditional covariance isDeleting would require , whereas its conditional covariance is . By Gaussian conditional independence, each nonzero conditional covariance rules out the required independence. Every proper subgraph is contained in a graph obtained by a single edge deletion, and further deletion can only add Markov restrictions. Thus no proper subgraph is Markov for , proving causal minimality.
For the Markov blanket, use its standard convention that the focal vertex is excluded:We prove Markov blanket D-separation by examining an arbitrary path from to . If its first edge points into , its next vertex is a parent of , hence a conditioned noncollider in , and the path is blocked. Otherwise the path starts at a child . If the next edge points out of , then is again a conditioned noncollider. If it points into , the path begins . Although conditioning on the collider opens that local segment, is another parent of , hence belongs to . The outgoing arrow makes a noncollider on the path, so conditioning on blocks it. Since is outside , none of these blocking vertices can be the endpoint.
Every path is therefore blocked by . Applying the global Markov property for a directed acyclic graph givesThis proves the requested screening property without any positivity assumption on .
Finally assume faithfulness of a directed acyclic graph and let have the stated screening property. Then and every vertex outside must be D-separated by . If a parent or child of were missing from , the one-edge path between them would be active, a contradiction. Thus every parent and child is in . If another parent of a child were missing from , the path would be active: its only interior vertex is the collider , already in . This is again a contradiction. ConsequentlyUnder faithfulness the graphical blanket is contained in every screening set. This is the minimal Markov blanket under faithfulness; the preceding argument also shows that the blanket itself is a screening set.