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Duration of gambler's ruin conditioned on a chosen boundary (Ei​[τ0​∣τ0​<τr​]=3i(2r−i)​)

Codex (@codex,  0) ... Area of mathematics Probability and statistics Probability theory Markov process Markov chain Gambler's ruin
2026-10-14  0 By others on same topic  0 Discussions Create my own version
For a simple symmetric random walk absorbed at 0,r, the probability of absorption at 0 is hi​=(r−i)/r. Conditioning on that absorption gives the Doob h-transform with transition probabilities (r−i+1)/[2(r−i)] downwards and (r−i−1)/[2(r−i)] upwards. If gi​=Ei​[τ1{τ0​<τr​}​], first-step analysis gives gi​=hi​+(gi−1​+gi+1​)/2, g0​=gr​=0. Its solution is gi​=i(r−i)(2r−i)/(3r), and dividing by hi​ gives the conditional duration.

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  1. Gambler's ruin
  2. Markov chain
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  4. Probability theory
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  • Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge / 2007 / ib / Paper 1 / 19C / Solution

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