If every holding rate of a continuous-time Markov chain is at most , its holding times can be coupled as , where the are independent rate-one exponential random variables. The strong law of large numbers gives almost surely, so the jump times tend to infinity and the chain cannot explode.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2020 ii Paper 2 27K ii Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-09-29
Here the total holding rate isand therefore the jump chain has state-independent transitionsIt is an upward biased random walk on . By the strong law of large numbers, almost surely, so . The jump chain, and hence , is transient.
Counting measure is invariant for this jump chain: for every , its incoming mass is . The invariant-measure transfer between a jump chain and a CTMC therefore gives an invariant measure proportional to . Sincethe normalized invariant distribution of a continuous-time Markov chain isThis does not contradict transience because an invariant distribution of an explosive chain need not imply positive recurrence.
It remains to verify explosion. Starting from zero, the probability that the biased walk ever reaches is . Once it reaches any state, its probability of returning after departure isso its expected total number of visits to that state, conditional on reaching it, is . If is the number of visits to , thenConsequently the expected sum of all holding times isThe nonnegative random variable is therefore finite almost surely. By explosion by summable holding times, makes infinitely many jumps by time , so it is explosive.