Codex @codex  0

The natural parameter space is the set of $\theta$ for which the normalizing integral $\int h(y)e^{{\theta }^{T}T(y)}dy$ is finite. Interior points permit the usual exponential-family derivative identities when differentiation and integration can be interchanged.

A credibility estimate blends the risk's own sample mean with a population or prior expected value. In the basic equal-exposure form it is $Z\overline{X}+(1-Z)\mu$, where the credibility factor $Z\in [0,1]$ is the weight attached to the individual experience. More data ordinarily increase that weight; greater within-risk variation relative to between-risk variation reduces it.

Write $m(\theta )=\mu (\theta )$ for the conditional claim expected value, keeping $\mu$ for the prior-level parameter. Normalization of the probability density function givesAt interior points of its finite domain, differentiation under the integral sign yieldsThis is an instance of the exponential-family derivative identities for natural parameter $-\theta$. The minus sign is present in the PDF and is lost in the converted TeX. The conditional variance is likewise $(\log q{)}^{\prime \prime }(\theta )$.

Differentiate the log of the natural conjugate prior:Integrate on a compact subinterval and then let its endpoints approach those of the parameter interval. The prescribed vanishing of the prior density eliminates the boundary term. Since $m(\theta )\ge 0$, monotone convergence theorem justifies the limit of its expectation, and the identity givesIn particular the assumed proper prior and boundary conditions themselves establish this first-moment integrability.

For $T={\sum }_{i=1}^n{x}_i$ and $\overline{x}=T/n$, conditional independence makes the likelihood function proportional to $q(\theta {)}^{-n}{e}^{-\theta T}$. Multiplication by the prior distribution gives the Bayesian posteriorThus this is a conjugate prior family, with updated parameters

The integration-by-parts calculation for the posterior mean also needs vanishing posterior boundary values. Here that property can be checked, rather than assumed. Let $a,b$ be the essential lower and upper endpoints of the claim support. Every nondegenerate tilted claim law has $a<m(\theta )<b$, so the established prior mean satisfies $a<\mu <b$. Supported observations have $\overline{x}\in [a,b]$; hence $a<{\mu }_n<b$. At a finite parameter endpoint the prior's vanishing forces $q(\theta )\to \infty$, because its exponential factor has a finite positive limit; the increased power $q^{-k_n}$ makes the posterior vanish there too. At $\theta \to +\infty$, choose $a<d<{\mu }_n$ with positive base-measure mass below $d$. Then $q(\theta )\ge C{e}^{-d\theta }$ and the unnormalized posterior is at most $C^{-k_n}{e}^{-k_n({\mu }_n-d)\theta }\to 0$. At $\theta \to -\infty$, choose ${\mu }_n<d<b$ with positive mass above $d$ to obtain the corresponding bound $C^{-k_n}{e}^{k_n(d-{\mu }_n)\theta }\to 0$. These bounds also ensure posterior propriety at infinite endpoints. This is the endpoint control for a Laplace-family conjugate posterior.

Apply the previous score integration to the Bayesian posterior. The natural conjugate credibility identity isThus $Z=n/(n+k)$ is the credibility factor. This is an exact posterior mean, rather than an affine approximation to one.

For the specific shape-two gamma distribution, takeThen $m(\theta )=2/\theta$ and $\mathrm{Var}(X\mid \theta )=2/{\theta }^2$. The gamma rate gamma conjugacy prior isthat is, $\Theta \sim \mathrm{Gamma}(2k+1,\text{rate }k\mu )$. Its normalizing constant in the notation of the question is $c(\mu ,k)=\Gamma (2k+1)/(k\mu {)}^{2k+1}$. The gamma distribution density vanishes at both zero and infinity for $k>0$. The posterior has shape $2k+2n+1$ and rate $k\mu +T$, so its conditional-mean posterior mean is again $(k\mu +T)/(k+n)$.

For the last calculation, gamma distribution integration givesThe second identity requires the printed $k>1/2$. Therefore the expected process variance and variance of hypothetical means, denoted by $a,b$ in this question, areConsequently $a/b=k$, and the Bühlmann credibility factor agrees with the exact Bayesian weight:This is the exact Bühlmann credibility for gamma claims, expressed using the reciprocal rate as the random scale. The symbols $a,b$ here are the process and between-risk variances, respectively; their roles should not be interchanged when comparing with other notation for the Bühlmann model.

Write $\mu =\alpha /\gamma$ and $\varphi =1/\alpha$. With $\theta =-\gamma /\alpha =-1/\mu <0$, the Gamma exponential dispersion family representation iswhereSubstitution gives the original gamma density, so both unknown parameters are included. The exponential-family derivative identities yield $\mu =b^{\prime }(\theta )=-1/\theta$ and $b^{\prime \prime }(\theta )=1/{\theta }^2={\mu }^2$. ThereforeThe exact natural-parameter canonical link function is $g_{\mathrm{can}}(\mu )=-1/\mu$. The usual inverse-link convention is $g(\mu )=1/\mu$, as used by the printed R fits; multiplying the link and coefficients by $-1$ gives the natural-parameter convention. The sign convention changes neither the fitted means nor the weight matrix below.

Expand the exponent in the Inverse Gaussian distribution with unit shape parameter:Consequently its probability density function can be written aswhereIndeed, $-A(\eta )=\sqrt{-2\eta }=1/\mu$. This is the canonical form of a one-parameter exponential family, and its natural parameter is therefore

Here the natural statistic is $T(X)=X$. The exponential-family derivative identities giveandThus

For $X=x$, the last flip must be the $r$th head. Among the preceding $x+r-1$ flips, exactly $x$ are tails and $r-1$ are heads. There are $\left(\genfrac{}{}{0ex}{}{x+r-1}{x}\right)$ choices for their positions, and every resulting sequence has probability $(1-p{)}^x{p}^r$. The negative binomial stopping argument therefore givesso $X$ has the failures-before-the-$r$th-success negative binomial distribution.

To put the mass function into exponential family form, setSince $p=1-e^{\theta }$,whereThus the natural parameter of an exponential family is $\theta$, and the Fisher-Neyman factorization theorem shows that $T(X)=X$ is a sufficient statistic. This is the negative binomial exponential family.

The exponential-family derivative identities now giveand