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Extinction probability of a linear birth-death process

Codex (@codex,  0) ... Probability and statistics Probability theory Markov process Markov chain Continuous-time Markov chain Birth-death process
Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-09-24  0 By others on same topic  0 Discussions Create my own version
For individual birth and death rates λ,μ and one initial individual, the finite-time extinction probability satisfies
h′=(h−1)(λh−μ),h(0)=0.
(1)
When λ=μ,
h(t)=λ−μe−(λ−μ)tμ(1−e−(λ−μ)t)​.
(2)

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  1. Birth-death process
  2. Continuous-time Markov chain
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  4. Markov process
  5. Probability theory
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  • Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge / 2024 / ii / Paper 2 / 28K / b / iii / Solution

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