Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2005 iii Paper 41 5 ii Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Assume the two trial arms are independent samples, their cost and survival means have a valid joint normal approximation, and the supplied standard errors and correlation coefficient estimate the joint uncertainty in their mean differences. This could follow from a central limit theorem for patient-level cost/survival pairs, with finite second moments and suitably handled survival follow-up. The supplied covariance matrix for isThe off-diagonal entry has units pounds times days, and must not be discarded. Independence of trial arms does not mean cost and survival increments are independent: patient-level cost and survival are paired within each arm.
For a proposed ratio , the null assertion is . Its estimated variance is . Fieller's theorem inverts the associated two-sided normal tests. With , retain whenExpanding givesThe leading coefficient is positive, since ; the effect increment is separated from zero at this level. With , the polynomial is approximatelyIt is nonpositive between its two real roots. The resulting approximate Fieller confidence set is therefore a bounded confidence interval:On the -day life-year scale the endpoints are approximately £9,133 and £36,376. Exact coverage would need an exact pivot with its corresponding critical value; using estimated covariance and a central limit theorem makes this an asymptotic interval. In other data, a poorly determined denominator can give unbounded or disconnected Fieller confidence sets, which should not be replaced by an artificially bounded interval.
An alternative is a paired bootstrap: independently resample patients within each randomized arm, keeping each patient's cost and survival together; recompute both mean differences and their ratio in each replicate. The and empirical ratio quantiles give a percentile bootstrap confidence interval. The raw paired data are needed to calculate it, so the numerical endpoints cannot be obtained from this summary table alone. Near-zero bootstrap effect increments or sign changes warn that ordinary ratio-percentile intervals may be unreliable; one should retain the joint cost/effect uncertainty or invert a suitable bootstrap test instead.
A simpler first-order alternative is the delta method. For , the gradient is , givingThe resulting approximate Wald confidence interval is pounds per day. Its symmetric first-order form misses the denominator's nonlinear effect, explaining its marked difference from the Fieller confidence set; it is not the preferred ratio interval here.