Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2001 iii Paper 27 2 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Write the surplus process in the classical risk model as , with positive independent claims. Condition on the first claim time, which has exponential distribution of rate . If that claim occurs at , the available capital is and survival requires its size not to exceed that capital. The independent future process then givesPut and change variables . We obtainThe convolution of bounded with the integrable density is continuous; differentiation of this expression is therefore justified. It proves the survival version of the ruin integro-differential equation:
The density is a hyperexponential distribution with mixture weights and exponential rates . Its total integral is one and its mean isThe relative safety loading means . Substitution of gives and .
Set . Differentiating in its equivalent form gives . The survival equation becomesApply the constant-coefficient operator , where . Since and ,Expanding and cancelling yields . Thus .
Positive loading also fixes the limiting boundary value . Indeed the aggregate-claims process minus premium income tends to minus infinity almost surely by the strong law of large numbers. Its supremum over all time is consequently finite almost surely, since paths have finitely many jumps on bounded intervals. The probability that this supremum exceeds tends to zero. Hence . At zero, the given value is , and the integral equation supplies the extra condition . Thereforeso and . The nonruin probability isThis is the two-exponential-mixture survival probability. It increases from to and satisfies the original integral equation, not just the differentiated equation; the zero-capital derivative condition prevents introducing extraneous solutions.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2013 iii Paper 28 3 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-07
In the classical risk model write , where the Poisson process has rate and is independent of the claim sizes. Define the ruin time and ultimate ultimate ruin probability byThe relative safety loading is , so . The adjustment coefficient is the nonzero positive solutionExistence and uniqueness follow from the secant-slope existence criterion for an adjustment coefficient. Explicitly, has derivative at zero and is strictly convex for positive claims. The assumed divergence of makes it cross zero once at a positive . When , an exponential lower bound from any positive tail event shows that . In particular is inside the finite-transform domain, not at its endpoint.
Put . Replacing in the survival renewal equation for a classical risk model yieldsBy the tail integral formula for moments, . Therefore this is the defective renewal equationThe original kernel has mass . For the exponential tilt of the ruin renewal kernel, setMultiplying by gives the required proper renewal equationTo verify that this is a probability renewal kernel, Tonelli theorem gives, for in the finite-transform domain,The adjustment coefficient equation consequently implies . Its expected value isIt is finite because is interior to the finite-transform domain and is positive because the strict convex crossing has derivative .
We quote the key renewal theorem in the following form: for a nonarithmetic distribution of positive increments with finite positive mean , and a directly Riemann integrable nonnegative function , the locally bounded solution of satisfies . It has renewal representation ; this follows by iterating the equation, since the probability that arbitrarily many positive increments have sum at most a fixed tends to zero.
Here is absolutely continuous, and hence nonarithmetic distribution, even if the original claim law has atoms. The function is continuous. Choose with . The Markov inequality gives , and hence . Continuity on compact intervals and this exponential bound make the upper Riemann sums finite with uniformly vanishing tails, proving direct Riemann integrability.
A further application of Tonelli theorem evaluates the forcing integral:All hypotheses of the key renewal theorem are now checked, so the interior adjustment coefficient ruin prefactor isThis proves the requested Cramér–Lundberg ruin asymptotic, including its constant.
For the two-component hyperexponential distribution, conditioning on the chosen exponential component givesIts moment-generating function and derivative areThe moment-generating function diverges at , while the derivative of the adjustment equation at zero is negative. Strict convexity therefore places its unique positive adjustment coefficient inThe adjustment equation, divided by , becomesUsing this identity to subtract from givesThus the asymptotic constant in terms of and isThe denominator is positive on the identified domain. If desired, is the smaller root of ; the other algebraic root lies outside the positive finite-transform interval and is not an adjustment coefficient.