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Cross-entropy measures the average logarithmic loss incurred when outcomes follow one probability distribution $P$, but a model assigns probabilities using another probability distribution $Q$. For a finite alphabet, write their probability mass functions as $p_i$ and $q_i$. With base-two logarithms,The expectation is under the true or stipulated source law $P$, rather than the model $Q$. Terms with $p_i=0$ contribute nothing. If $p_i>0$ but $q_i=0$ for any outcome, the cross-entropy is $+\infty$: the model rules out an event that can occur. The result is measured in bits; natural logarithms give nats.

The useful identity is cross-entropy equals entropy plus relative entropy:The source's information entropy $H(P)$ is the baseline uncertainty. The Kullback-Leibler divergence is the extra average cost of a mismatched model, with the true law first and model second. Thus optimizing $Q$ for a fixed $P$ reduces the mismatch, rather than changing the source's own uncertainty. For finite alphabets, the minimum is $H(P)$, attained exactly at $Q=P$.

Take a three-symbol source with $P=(1/2,1/4,1/4)$. A matched binary prefix code assigns $A\mapsto 0$, $B\mapsto 10$, $C\mapsto 11$, with lengths $(1,2,2)$. A mismatched prefix code instead assigns $A\mapsto 10$, $B\mapsto 11$, $C\mapsto 0$, with lengths $(2,2,1)$, corresponding to $Q=(1/4,1/4,1/2)$. Both prefix codes decode exactly, but the most common symbol is shorter in the matched code. Under the same source $P$,The mismatched code costs an extra (1/4) bit per source symbol on average. No information is lost; the penalty is inefficient representation of this source. The mismatch penalty in lossless coding explains when this coding interpretation is exact.

Cross-entropy is also useful when evaluating a predictive distribution. A report that places tiny probability on the realized outcome receives a large logarithmic loss, even when it usually predicts the most common outcome correctly. The loss convention is the negative of the reward convention in the logarithmic scoring rule. Its expected loss is uniquely minimized by the correct probability distribution, making it a strictly proper scoring rule. Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation by Tilmann Gneiting and others treats this connection in §3.1, Example 3; its discussion uses rewards, so the signs are reversed for the losses here.^[ref]

I. J. Good's Rational Decisions by I. J. Good appeared in 1952. Its published summary describes a method for encouraging accurate probability estimates and a connection with information theory. Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation by Tilmann Gneiting and others traces the logarithmic scoring rule at least as far back as this 1952 paper.^[ref]

By I. J. Good.

Published in the Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B, volume 14, number 1, pp. 107–114.

Publisher website: rss.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.2517-6161.1952.tb00104.x

Cited passage: the published summary describes encouraging accurate probability estimates and a connection with information theory.