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The Kalman filter alternates a Kalman prediction step with a Kalman measurement update. It carries a state estimate forward using a state-space model, then adjusts it by the part of the new observation that was not predicted: the innovation. The Kalman gain determines the adjustment from the uncertainty of the prediction and the measurement noise. A noisy measurement should have less influence than an equally surprising precise one.

For a precise discrete-time statement, let the state and observation be vectors in real vector spaces obeying the linear state-space modelThe matrices and control inputs are known. Assume a Gaussian random vector $x_0$ with mean $m_0$ and covariance matrix $P_0$, and mutually independent centered Gaussian noises $w_t,v_t$, independent of $x_0$, with covariance matrices $Q_t,R_t$. Suppose $R_t$ is positive-definite, so the observation innovation covariance is invertible. Then the recursions below give the exact posterior mean $m_t=\mathbb{E}[x_t\mid y_1,\dots ,y_t]$ and posterior covariance matrix $P_t$, hence the full conditional multivariate normal distribution. They also minimize mean squared error. Without the Gaussian assumptions, suitable second-order assumptions still give best affine state estimates, but do not generally give an exact posterior distribution. ^[ref].

For an exact scalar example, suppose the predicted state has normal distribution $N(10,4)$ and a measurement reports $y=14$ in the same units. With measurement noise variance $R=1$, the Kalman gain is $4/(4+1)=4/5$ and the posterior distribution isWith the same prediction and observed value but measurement noise variance $R=16$, the Kalman gain becomes $1/5$ and the posterior distribution is instead $N(10.8,3.2)$. Both updates move toward the observation; the more precise measurement moves the estimate further and reduces uncertainty more.

The useful compression is exact under the stated model: the two objects $m_t,P_t$ contain everything from the past observations needed for the next update. Their size depends on the state dimension, not on the length of the observation history. This makes causal state filtering practical when observations arrive continually. It also gives Linear-quadratic-Gaussian control an estimate of the state on which to act.

Rudolf E. Kalman's 1960 paper organized linear filtering around state transitions, error covariance and recursive computation, connecting estimation with optimal regulation. Its introduction acknowledges earlier work by Wiener, Bode, Shannon and others; the useful historical claim is this particular formulation, rather than that estimation began in 1960. ^[ref].