Normal-normal conjugacy with unequal exposures ($\Theta \mid X\sim N((v\mu +a{\sum }_j{m}_j{X}_j)/(v+aW),av/(v+aW))$)

For independent normal observations conditional on $\Theta$, with mean $\Theta$ and variances $v/m_j$, and normal prior mean $\mu$ and variance $a$, write $W={\sum }_j{m}_j$. Multiplying likelihood and prior adds precisions $W/v+1/a$. Completing the square gives the displayed posterior distribution. Its posterior mean is $Z{\overline{X}}_w+(1-Z)\mu$, where $Z=aW/(v+aW)$ and ${\overline{X}}_w={\sum }_j{m}_j{X}_j/W$. Thus the Bayes estimator under squared error loss is exactly the Bühlmann–Straub credibility estimate, not merely an approximation to it. Its posterior variance is $av/(v+aW)$.