Past exam of the mathematical and Computational Biology course of the University of Cambridge / 2024 / Paper 1 / C5 / d / Solution

Under the stated topology probabilities, $P(A)=2/3$ and $P(B)=1/3$. Averaging the branch lengths from part (b), the expected length producing the folded $3:1$ class isThe factor $2E_2$ in type A includes both the one-descendant and three-descendant root branches. The expected length producing the $2:2$ class isWith a common mutation rate per unit branch length, it cancels from the ratio of expected counts in this folded site frequency spectrum:For the Yule process,For Kingman's coalescent,These are ratios of ensemble expected mutation counts, not the expected value of the random ratio in one tree. The stipulated topology weights apply to both processes, and their waiting-time rates depend only on the current number of branches.