Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge / 2002 / iii / Paper 77 / 2

Use the positive-integer geometric distribution, $\mathbb{P}(X=k)=p(1-p{)}^{k-1}$ for $k\ge 1$, initially with $0<p<1$. Put $a=-\log (1-p)>0$. The precise good rate function on $\mathbb{R}$ isThe large-deviation speed is $L\to \infty$. We prove both bounds of the large deviation principle for $X^L=X/L$.

For $x>0$, the geometric tail gives the exact expressionLet $F$ be a closed set. If it does not meet $[0,\infty )$ its probability is zero. If it contains zero, $\mathrm{limsup}{L}^{-1}\log \mathbb{P}(X^L\in F)\le 0=-{\inf }_{F}I$. Otherwise, if it meets the nonnegative half-line, its least possible nonnegative value $r$ is positive: a sequence in $F$ approaching zero would force zero into the closed set. Its event is contained in $\{X^L\ge r\}$, giving

For an open set $G$ containing $x>0$, choose positive integers $k_L$ with $k_L/L\to x$. Eventually $k_L/L\in G$, andIf $0\in G$, the event $X=1$ alone gives lower exponential rate zero; alternatively the probability of a neighborhood of zero tends to one. Optimizing over $x\in G$ proves the open-set lower bound. Sets containing no nonnegative point require only the trivial lower bound $-\infty$.

The rate function is lower semicontinuous at zero as well as elsewhere, and $\{I\le r\}=[0,r/a]$ for finite $r\ge 0$ is compact. Hence the large deviation principle has a good rate function. This establishes the large deviations of a scaled geometric random variable. For $p=1$, $X=1$ deterministically and the rate instead is zero at $x=0$ and infinite elsewhere; the displayed logarithmic coefficient must not be treated as an ordinary finite number in that case.

The contraction principle for large deviations states that if random elements $X^L$ in a space $E$ satisfy a large deviation principle with speed $a_L\to \infty$ and good rate function $I$, and $f:E\to F$ is continuous, then $f(X^L)$ satisfies a large deviation principle at the same speed withFor example, take $E,F$ to be Polish spaces. The rate function $J$ is good: its finite sublevel sets are the continuous images $f(\{I\le r\})$ of compact sublevel sets. Compactness and lower semicontinuity ensure that a finite fibre infimum relevant to such a sublevel set is attained. The probability bounds follow by taking preimages of open and closed sets.

With $n$ fixed, the asymptotic family is the scaled sumAn unscaled fixed random variable alone has no diverging parameter for a large deviation principle; this scaling is the continuation of part (a). Suppose first $0<p_i<1$ and put $a_i=-\log (1-p_i)$. Independence and the product large-deviation principle give the vector $(X_1/L,\dots ,X_n/L)$ rateAddition is continuous, so the contraction principle for large deviations givesFor $s\ge 0$ every feasible vector has cost at least $s{a}_{\ast }$, where $a_{\ast }={\min }_i{a}_i$. Equality holds by assigning all scaled excess to an index attaining $a_{\ast }$. For $s<0$ the constraint set is empty. ThusEquivalently, the coefficient is $-\log (1-p_{\ast })$ with $p_{\ast }={\min }_i{p}_i$. On the exponential scale the rare large sum is carried by a variable having the slowest geometric tail. Several equal slowest tails can change polynomial prefactors, but not this rate function. This is the large deviations of a fixed sum of geometric random variables.

As a direct check of the tail exponent, for each $0<\theta <a_{\ast }$ the moment-generating function of the sum is finite, so the Chernoff bound gives an upper rate at most $-\theta s$ for $s>0$. Letting $\theta \uparrow a_{\ast }$ gives $-a_{\ast }s$. For a lower neighborhood bound, keep all other variables at fixed finite values and let a slowest-tail variable take an integer near $Ls$; its probability has rate $-a_{\ast }s$. If some $p_i=1$, their deterministic contributions disappear after division by $L$, so minimize over the nondeterministic variables. If all $p_i=1$, the rate is zero only at zero and infinite elsewhere.