Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge / 2007 / iii / Paper 46 / 1 / c / Solution

Let $Y_I,Y_C$ be attendance totals and $T_I,T_C$ the observed person-time at risk. Under independent Poisson distributions for the totals, the estimated incidence rate ratio is $\hat{R}=(Y_I/T_I)/(Y_C/T_C)$. Treating the exposures as known, the supplied large-count approximation, or the delta method, givesIndependence adds the log-count variances, while fixed exposure terms add no variance. Form the normal confidence interval on the log scale and exponentiate:This specifies the calculation without evaluating it. Individual randomization makes a child the assignment unit, but an independent Poisson count model remains an additional assumption about outcomes, not a consequence of randomization alone.