Hawking radiation is a prediction of quantum field theory in curved spacetime, not of classical collapse alone. Consider a free massless Klein-Gordon field in the collapse vacuum for Hawking radiation: initially no incoming particles from past null infinity, with the short-distance state regular for freely falling observers through the forming event horizon. At late times use the approximately fixed exterior Schwarzschild metric; neglect backreaction during the observation interval. First set .
The exterior metric has . Introduce the tortoise coordinate and outgoing and ingoing null coordinates,
The surface gravity is . The logarithm in makes a late escaping ray spend a long exterior coordinate time close to the event horizon. One of the regular outgoing Kruskal–Szekeres coordinates is proportional to . Smooth propagation backwards through the collapsing body relates this regular coordinate to the incoming coordinate on past null infinity. If labels the last ray able to escape, the late-time Hawking exponential ray map is consequently
Here the symbol is the outgoing retarded time evaluated on the ray; the first equation is the leading asymptotic relation, with subleading corrections that vanish at late times. The constant depends on collapse history, whereas the exponential rate is determined by the final surface gravity. The relation follows from a nondegenerate Killing horizon; a linear ray map would not have the same effect.
An outgoing positive-frequency mode at future null infinity behaves as , where is measured with respect to the asymptotic stationary time. In the near-horizon geometric optics approximation its backward-propagated form on past null infinity is
This is not purely positive frequency in . Its decomposition into incoming positive-frequency modes and their complex conjugates is a Bogoliubov transformation:
The coefficients follow from the Klein-Gordon inner product, or equivalently from the Fourier transform with the indicated flux normalization. Writing and , the two Fourier integrals, after a convergence regulator, are
The equality is the defining integral of the Gamma function, continued to these arguments from the right half-plane. Up to phases of unit modulus, is and is . Taking on the principal branches, the arguments of tend to . Thus and , giving the thermal ratio of Hawking Bogoliubov coefficients
In particular, using ,
The collapse-dependent phases and disappear from the ratio. The canonical identities for a bosonic Bogoliubov transformation state that the positive-frequency norm minus the negative-frequency norm is one for a normalized outgoing mode. Combining that identity with the thermal ratio yields the late-time mean occupation
These are the Bose-Einstein distribution and the Hawking temperature. Strictly, monochromatic modes have delta-function normalization, and contains the infinite-duration divergence . Normalized wave packets with a finite frequency band and a finite retarded-time window remove this artifact. For sufficiently late packets the occupation is the frequency average of the displayed thermal factor, tending to it for a narrow band. Fermionic fields instead give the corresponding denominator because their canonical normalization uses anticommutators.
Four-dimensional propagation adds an important qualification to the word thermal. Separation of the massless Klein-Gordon equation into spherical harmonics gives an exterior radial scattering potential
Only a fraction of the outgoing mode is transmitted to future null infinity; this is the greybody factor. The scalar particle flux there is
The factor counts the angular modes, and multiplication by gives the spectral energy flux. An observer at infinity therefore receives an outgoing thermal population filtered by curvature scattering, rather than an exact unfiltered blackbody spectrum. In physical units, for mass ,
There is no incoming thermal bath in the collapse vacuum for Hawking radiation. The outgoing flux has positive Killing energy; its counterpart inside the event horizon can carry negative Killing energy. Including the expectation value of the stress-energy tensor in the gravitational evolution allows the mass to decrease. The fixed-background derivation describes the slowly evolving semiclassical regime and does not determine the endpoint of evaporation. Quantum expectation values need not satisfy the classical null energy condition, so this loss of area is not a contradiction of the classical second law of black-hole mechanics. The essential late-time universality is the combination of a regular initial quantum state and the exponential redshift at the newly formed event horizon.

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