Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge / 2012 / iii / Paper 33 / 2

Let $Y_i$ be independent and identically distributed random variables with moment-generating function finite on an open interval about $0$. Putallowing $\Lambda =+\infty$ outside its finite domain. The Cramér theorem states that ${\bar{Y}}_n=n^{-1}{\sum }_{i=1}^n{Y}_i$ satisfies a large deviation principle with speed $n$ and good rate function $I$, the Legendre transform of a cumulant-generating function. Explicitly, for every closed set $F$ and open set $O$,Here $\log 0=-\infty$ and $\inf \varnothing =+\infty$. The rate function is lower semicontinuous and its finite sublevel sets are compact. The exponential-moment hypothesis is essential for this form of the Cramér theorem.

For the unit-rate exponential distribution, direct integration givesFor $x>0$, maximizing $\theta x+\log (1-\theta )$ gives $\theta =1-1/x$, and therefore $I(x)=x-1-\log x$. For $x\le 0$ the supremum is infinite, as seen by taking $\theta \to -\infty$.

For $a>1$, $I$ is increasing on $[a,\infty )$, and its continuity gives ${\inf }_{[a,\infty )}I={\inf }_{(a,\infty )}I=I(a)$. The closed-set upper bound and open-set lower bound of the Cramér theorem squeeze the desired limit to $-I(a)$. For $a=1$, both infima are $0$, because $I(1)=0$ and $I(x)\to 0$ as $x\downarrow 1$. For $0\le a<1$, the strong law of large numbers gives $S_n/n\to 1$ almost surely, so the tail probability tends to $1$; at $a=0$ it is identically $1$.

Consequently the exponential sample-mean upper-tail rate isThe threshold case uses the rate-function lower bound on the open half-line, rather than applying the law of large numbers at equality.

The transformation of the uniform distribution gives, for $x\ge 1$,Thus $X_1$ has a Pareto distribution with lower endpoint $1$ and shape $2$. It has mean $2$, but no positive exponential moments, so the preceding version of the Cramér theorem is unavailable.

At $a=0$, the event in question is certain. For every fixed $a>0$ and all sufficiently large $n$, positivity of the summands gives the one-big-jump polynomial lower boundTaking logarithms and dividing by $n$ gives an upper bound $0$ and a lower bound $-2\log (na)/n\to 0$. HenceThis covers thresholds below, at and above the mean. Above the mean it means decay is slower than exponential speed $n$, not that the tail probability tends to $1$.