Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge / 2017 / ii / Paper 4 / 28J / a / Solution

Use discrete dates $j=0,\dots ,N$, a bank account $B_j=R^j$ with $R=1+r>0$, and a positive stock with each one-period gross return either $u$ or $d$, where $0<d<u$. On the natural tree assume both moves have positive physical probability. The Cox--Ross--Rubinstein model is arbitrage-free precisely whenOtherwise a stock/bank position gives nonnegative profit in both states and positive profit in at least one. Under the condition, the unique equivalent martingale measure has independent upward moves with conditional probabilityIndeed $qu+(1-q)d=R$, making the discounted stock a martingale. Both branches have positive probability under this measure, ensuring equivalence. The uniqueness/completeness claim is for the stock-generated binomial tree; an enlarged filtration carrying additional untraded risk would change that claim.