Past exam of the options I course of the University of Oxford / 2010 / O / O1 / b

Set $s=S_D/\sqrt{17}$. Symmetry of $t_{16}$ gives $P(T>-1.746)=0.95$, soThe requested upper confidence bound is thereforeThere is a direction inconsistency in connecting this particular interval to the stated treatment alternative. Since $D$ is before minus after, a blood-pressure reduction means $\mu >0$. An upper interval $(-\infty ,b)$ excludes the null value zero only when $b<0$, which instead supports $\mu <0$.

For the requested reduction alternative, use the lower 95% intervalIt excludes zero in the appropriate direction exactly whenThis is the correct level-5% paired one-sided $t$ test of no mean change against a reduction. The requested upper bound is valid as a confidence statement, but its ordinary exclusion-of-zero test has the opposite direction.

The sign follows the duality between confidence intervals and hypothesis tests for the paired t-test.