Past exam of the options II course of the University of Oxford / 2011 / O / O4 / c / Solution

The log likelihood ratio statistic comparing the unrestricted fit with the independence fit isThe unrestricted model has $rc-1=8$ free parameters. Independence has $(r-1)+(c-1)=4$, so the difference is $(r-1)(c-1)=4$. By Wilks theorem, under the null hypothesis the statistic has asymptotically a chi-squared distribution with $4$ degrees of freedom, rather than $6$, $8$, or $9$.

For the supplied statistic, the approximate p-value is $1-F_4(11.8)=0.02$. Thus reject independence at the 5% level, but not at the 1% level: the data provide evidence of an association. The approximation is reasonable here; the smallest fitted cell count is $27\cdot 99/299\approx 8.94$, so all fitted counts exceed $5$. The statistical hypothesis test concerns association, not a causal effect of personality.