Past exam of the physics of atmospheres and oceans course of the University of Oxford / 2022 / 3 / c

Let $1<S<S_c$ be the ambient saturation ratio. There are two equilibrium radii: $r_{-}<r_c<r_{+}$. Condensation occurs if $S>S_{\mathrm{eq}}(r)$; evaporation occurs if $S<S_{\mathrm{eq}}(r)$. Therefore droplets with $r<r_{-}$ grow towards $r_{-}$, while those with $r_{-}<r<r_c$ shrink towards $r_{-}$. The smaller equilibrium is stable.

Above $r_c$, droplets with $r_c<r<r_{+}$ still undergo evaporation and ultimately approach $r_{-}$. Droplets with $r>r_{+}$ grow, and the larger equilibrium $r_{+}$ is unstable. Merely exceeding $r_c$ is therefore not sufficient for continued growth at subcritical ambient atmospheric supersaturation. For example, if $(S-1)/(S_c-1)=0.6$, the two intersections have approximately $r_{-}/r_c=0.676$ and $r_{+}/r_c=2.349$; a droplet of radius $1.5r_c$ undergoes evaporation. If instead $S>S_c$, there is no equilibrium barrier in this approximation and droplets activate into growing cloud droplets.

Köhler theory explains activation of cloud condensation nuclei, rather than rapid production of atmospheric precipitation. Diffusion-controlled droplet growth is limited by diffusion of water vapor and removal of released latent heat; approximately $d(r^2)/dt$ is proportional to the ambient atmospheric supersaturation. It slows in radius and tends to narrow a droplet size distribution. The available water vapor, changing temperature and shared depletion of atmospheric supersaturation also invalidate unlimited growth at prescribed $S$. Formation of rain-sized drops normally requires collision-coalescence, while colder clouds can additionally use cloud ice nucleation versus ice growth.