Past exam of the short options paper of the physics Prelims of the University of Oxford / 2022 / S03 / 2 / b / iii / Solution

For an axis halfway from $+z$ toward $+x$, let $|n+⟩=\cos (\pi /8)|\uparrow ⟩+\sin (\pi /8)|\downarrow ⟩$. The Born rule givesThe negative-outcome probabilities are complementary. Both outcomes can occur for both inputs, so one result cannot distinguish them perfectly. Repeated measurements on independently prepared copies distinguish their different statistics with arbitrarily high confidence. Reversing the diagonal direction exchanges the two numbers. This separates single-copy certainty from statistical distinguishability.